Weather Update: Thursday May 11, 2023

Bottom Line

Strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, and again late Friday afternoon through Friday night, with the best storm chances along and west of the I-35 corridor. Locally heavy rain may also occur.

Overview

There is a low potential for strong to severe thunderstorms west of I-35 and north of I-20 this afternoon and evening, with the main threats being damaging wind gusts and large hail. The tornado threat is low but not zero.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop to our west and northwest Friday afternoon as an upper level disturbance approaches.
Storms may form into one or two lines or clusters as they spread east and southeast into North and Central Texas Friday evening.
A few storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out, though the overall tornado threat appears low at this time.
The main concern will shift to localized flooding overnight before this activity exits to the south Saturday morning.
The best chances for strong/severe storms and heavy rain are along and west of I-35.
Heavy rain will continue into the weekend, primarily west of I-35. Flooding will be the main concern.

Areas of Concern and Impacts

Threats/Hazardous Weather Types

Forecaster Confidence

General Timing

What We Are Certain Of:

Showers and storms will affect mainly the western half of North and Central Texas late Friday afternoon through Friday night.
Moisture and instability will be sufficient for strong storms with locally heavy rain.

What We Are Less Certain Of:

If storms will develop this afternoon.
The amount of wind shear expected to be present on Friday. Higher shear will increase the likelihood of severe storms.

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